Ultra low cost carriers in the United States are in a tough spot. At the start of the pandemic, the legacy carriers got better at competing with ultra low cost carriers, both in terms of their routes (point-to-point leisure service), and in terms of their product offering (more compelling basic economy options).
Lately, we’ve seen Frontier Airlines increasingly expand into business markets, attacking legacy carriers at their hubs. This also comes as the airline has overhauled its fare structure.
Earlier today, I wrote about how Frontier Airlines was planning on launching a route that left me scratching my head. However, the airline has seemingly already backtracked on these plans in recent hours… or something.
Frontier Airlines’ surprising transcon route plans
Last night, Ishrion Aviation had the scoop on some new routes that Frontier Airlines is adding as of August 13, 2024. The airline is continuing to attack legacy carriers and JetBlue, with new flights from Boston (BOS) to Atlanta (ATL), Charlotte (CLT), and Dallas (DFW).
However, there was one new route that was most surprising to me. Frontier Airlines was planning on adding a new daily flight between New York (JFK) and Los Angeles (LAX). The 2,475-mile flight was supposed to operate with the following schedule:
New York to Los Angeles departing 8:59AM arriving 11:55AM
Los Angeles to New York departing 8:58PM arriving 5:34AM (+1 day)
Just this month, Frontier Airlines has made its return to New York (JFK), as the airline has launched flights between there and San Juan (SJU). As of August, Frontier Airlines will also launch flights from New York (JFK) to Las Vegas (LAS), though to me that’s less surprising.
What makes this so interesting is that this morning, Frontier even sent out a press release confirming this new route. But then very shortly thereafter, the airline retracted it, and now the airline is stating that it doesn’t plan to launch the route “at this time.”
That has to be the fastest I’ve ever seen an airline backtrack on a route. So, what exactly happened here in the background? We can only speculate.
I was surprised to learn about this route in the first place, since JFK is a partially slot controlled airport, and it wasn’t clear where Frontier was getting those slots from. The redeye was scheduled to arrive early enough so that slots wouldn’t be needed, while the mid-morning departure would require a slot.
So my assumption is that Frontier didn’t actually have the slot to operate this route that it thought it had. Maybe the slot was supposed to be leased from another airline, but that airline had a change of heart at the last minute, when it learned the route that Frontier would use it for? Keep in mind that slot waivers remain in effect, meaning that the incumbent airlines can slot squat.
Does a JFK to LAX route make sense for Frontier Airlines?
Of all the markets an ultra low cost carrier could expand into, entering the New York to Los Angeles market has to be the strangest. This is the most competitive, premium market in the country. It’s served by American, Delta, and JetBlue, and there are roughly 30 flights per day. Meanwhile United has a huge presence in the Newark to Los Angeles market, though I’m not counting that here.
Would there be merit to Frontier coming in and offering a single daily flight, with a rough redeye schedule in one direction, no less?
Logically some people may be thinking “well, the New York to Los Angeles market isn’t just premium, and there are plenty of people just looking for the lowest fare.” You’re absolutely right. This gets back to how legacy airlines are doing a good job competing with their basic economy products, because currently you’ll regularly see basic economy fares of $132-142 one-way, and this is before Frontier even enters the market.
How much can Frontier really undercut the competition here? I mean, would you rather fly JetBlue for $132 and get a good amount of legroom, free entertainment, free Wi-Fi, free drinks and snacks, and your choice of nearly 10 daily frequencies, or fly Frontier?
I suppose there’s some percentage of the traveling public who just go online and book whatever the cheapest ticket is, no matter what, even if it doesn’t represent the best value, and has a terrible schedule. And maybe Frontier can attract those passengers. But it also doesn’t change the fact that the operating costs of a flight this long aren’t exactly low.
I suppose the other angle might be that at the last minute, basic economy fares on existing airlines often aren’t as cheap, so maybe Frontier can get a lot of last minute bookings.
Bottom line
Frontier Airlines is continuing to expand into business markets that are dominated by other airlines. The airline intended to launch once daily flights between New York and Los Angeles, though has backtracked within hours. If launched, this would be one of Frontier’s boldest new routes yet, given how competitive and premium the market is.
However, at least for the time being, this route isn’t happening. Frontier put out a press release indicating this route was going to happen, and backtracked shortly thereafter. I have to imagine that the slots Frontier was counting on just didn’t materialize as planned. It sounds to me like this route isn’t permanently off the table, though, and it’s just a function of Frontier getting the permission it needs.
What do you make of the prospect of Frontier entering the JFK to LAX market?
